Tilapia supply is expected to be tight in the first half of 2025

In December 2024, prices for farmed tilapia in China have stabilized and are in balance with the US market, a trend that is expected to remain in place until at least January 2025. This stabilization is a recovery from a drop in prices caused by Donald Trump’s tariff threats before his election as US president in November.

During the period from December 16 to 22, 2024, the ex-factory price of 500-800g farmed tilapia in Guangdong Province remained at RMB 9.0/kg, while that in Hainan Province remained at RMB 9.4/kg, and has remained stable for two weeks. At the same time, the price in Guangxi also remained stable.

In the US market, the latest wholesale prices for tilapia also remained stable. Industry analysts believe this is mainly due to China's improved supply of raw materials and processing plants continuing to produce large quantities of products to meet strong demand before the Lunar New Year. However, industry participants have expressed concerns about the supply of raw materials after the holidays and expect supply to be tighter and costs likely to be higher.

The stable raw material prices in China are also due to smaller harvests compared with October and November and fishing farmers' reduced concerns about U.S. tariffs.

An executive at a large processor in Guangdong said the raw material market became "more rational" in December, with no oversupply or price increases.

Additionally, an executive at a factory in Hainan noted that tilapia prices are still at relatively high historical levels and are expected to remain stable before the Lunar New Year. Regarding the market situation next year, industry insiders believe that due to the relatively limited supply of fish species in Hainan from July to November, the supply of raw materials will still be tight in the first half of next year, and the price is expected to rise to 10.0 yuan/kg. Therefore, farmers may face a relatively favorable situation. market.

In terms of U.S. imports, as of October 2024, 143.21 million pounds of frozen tilapia fillets were imported, with an average price of $1.81 /lb. Although import volumes fell in October, the overall import situation remains strong.

Reference: YUYIPAI