The price of tilapia continues to rise,few fish in ponds and export orders are about to increase!

The highest price rose by 0.7 CNY/500g. There are few fish in ponds, and the market outlook is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

What are the trends in tilapia prices and trends this month?

According to fish farmers in Wenchang, Hainan, the current fish price is still good, but it has declined from half a month ago, but is still up from the same period last month. Due to the skyrocketing feed prices, frequent diseases, and continued decline in fish prices, farmers have suffered large losses. Affected by many factors such as environmental protection issues and other factors, the number of commercial-sized tilapia in ponds in Wenchang has dropped significantly. On October 13, the market price of 500g was 5 CNY/500g, and the factory price was 5.2 CNY, an increase of 0.4 CNY/500g compared with the same period last month.

There are not many tilapia ponds in Zhanjiang and Maoming in western Guangdong, the main tilapia breeding areas in Guangdong. The price of fish has also increased compared with the same period last month. The current factory price of 500g of upper specifications is 5.4 CNY, a year-on-year increase. The price increased by 0.4 CNY/500g, which was an increase of 0.2 CNY/500g compared with last week during the long holiday.

According to an industry insider from a large processing plant in the Beihai area of Guangxi, the current commercial size of tilapia in ponds in the Beihai area is about two and a half million kg, and the price of fish is also good. The factory price of 500g is 5.1 CNY/500g, which is higher than last month. During the same period, it also increased by 0.1 CNY/500g.

Due to the long-term sluggish price of tilapia and the skyrocketing feed prices, farmers have suffered serious losses, which has greatly affected the enthusiasm for breeding and seeding. According to industry insiders, tilapia seeding in the three places in South China has dropped sharply year-on-year, so the fish shortage will continue until the end of the year. In 2024, it is expected that fish prices will not fall easily.

U.S. inventories decline, overseas orders may continue to increase in the future

China's tilapia mainly relies on exports, mainly exported to North America, Africa, Europe and other places, and the United States is China's largest overseas market for tilapia exports. Affected by the Sino-US trade friction in 2019, the 25% tariff imposed by the United States on China restricted the export of tilapia. Countries represented by Brazil and Costa Rica increased their exports of tilapia to the United States. In 2020, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, feed shortages, processing shutdowns, restrictions on production activities and other factors, the global demand for tilapia imports has been significantly reduced. The market size of China's tilapia in the United States has gradually been compressed, compounded by the U.S. economic downturn. , there was a large amount of stocking in the early stage, and currently tilapia stocks are relatively sufficient, so the volume of fish harvested by Chinese tilapia processing plants has dropped significantly.

Judging from the tilapia processing situation, in 2019 when the United States increased tariffs, the tilapia processing volume showed a cliff drop, only 560,000 tons, a 20% decrease from 607,000 tons in 2018. At the same time, the proportion of tilapia processing volume in the national aquaculture volume is also decreasing year by year. In 2022, tilapia processing volume will account for about 31%, which is 12 percentage points lower than 43% in 2018. From the perspective of long-term development space, tilapia processing volume will account for about 31%. The prospects for fish farming and production in the future may lie more in China's domestic market. According to research, tilapia stocks in the United States are currently declining. However, due to the weak economy, overseas purchase orders have not yet increased. With Christmas approaching, it is expected that the volume of fish harvested by processing plants may continue to increase in the future, and prices may further increase. Increase.

Tilapia price forecast and future development trends in 2024

Judging from the current tilapia market situation, tilapia ponds in various production areas continue to decrease and prices continue to rise. With Christmas approaching, foreign orders may continue to increase, coupled with the impact of heavy rains in Guangdong and Guangxi, including the escape of tilapia has resulted in tight supply in the tilapia market. The price of tilapia may further rise in the future, which will increase the enthusiasm of farmers to invest in seedlings.

According to research, due to the relatively high temperature in Hainan, Guangdong and other places, the relative reduction in seed shipments, the supply of tilapia seed is in short supply. From October to December, as the temperature drops, tilapia seed farms may increase production. The cargo volume meets market demand, and tilapia farming volume may further increase in 2024. The current high price may continue until May next year.

According to a report by Gorjan Nikolik, chief analyst at Rabobank, at the Responsible Seafood Summit, the annual meeting of the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA), global tilapia production will grow to 7 million tons in 2024.

The report pointed out that the tilapia aquaculture industry has gradually returned to the growth track after experiencing a production reduction in 2020, with a growth rate of 5.3% in 2023 and 5% in 2024. China, Indonesia and Egypt account for three-quarters of global production.