The trade war between China and USA will result in a lose-lose situation

For Chinese exporters, the trade situation after the second quarter is not optimistic. Not only Chinese sellers want to seize the European market, but other countries also hope to gain a foothold in Europe in advance due to concerns about the US reciprocal tariffs.

During the Barcelona exhibition, Cui He, chairman of the China Aquatic Products Distribution and Processing Association (CAPPMA), said in an interview with UCN that China's exports grew strongly in the first quarter, but there is no doubt that they will decline in the second quarter. US buyers stockpiled and purchased before the tariffs, creating temporary demand, and Chinese exporters just filled these demands.

In the first quarter of this year, China's seafood exports increased by 7.5% year-on-year to US$4.62 billion, and export volume increased by 16% to 1.03 million tons. Exports to the US market increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 81,600 tons, and export value increased by 12.5% to US$470 million.

The tilapia industry has been hit hardest by the escalating trade war between China and the United States. In 2024, China exported 128,000 tons of tilapia products to the United States, worth $426 million.

"At present, many tilapia are still kept in ponds, and the growth cycle is extended. Exporters have to find alternative markets. During the period when we temporarily stop exporting to the United States, the fish can grow a little bigger, which is no problem." Cui He said.

Regarding the government's support for export companies, Cui He suggested that the authorities encourage the expansion of the domestic market instead of providing subsidies. The Chinese government's position is clear. When export companies encounter temporary difficulties, they should approach through the domestic market. The flexibility of China's seafood industry is also an advantage. Farmers can switch to other species at any time. China has more than 100 commercial species, including fish, shrimp and crabs. No other country has such rich diversity.

Cui He believes that the current Sino-US trade deadlock is a lose-lose situation. The trade relationship between the two sides has been established for nearly 30 years and has reached an unprecedented scale. This is not established in 8 or 10 years. The uncertainty of US trade policy is the biggest obstacle to resolving disputes. Without policy certainty, it is impossible for companies on both sides to accurately calculate costs or determine whether it is still profitable to maintain the trade model.

This destructiveness also extends to other countries, affecting the global supply chain. "Due to the uncertainty of US policies, other countries are also reluctant to intervene. If the United States suddenly reduces tariffs again, companies that have just invested will face losses." Cui He said.

Reference: UCN