Will the price of raw tilapia go up again?

For Chinese processors, tilapia raw material prices are rising again, and they are also facing pressure from higher shipping costs to the United States and Europe.

On June 8, the raw material price of 500-800 grams of tilapia in Guangdong Province rose 2.52% week on week, reaching a record high of 11.80 yuan ($1.63)/kg. In Hainan, the price of raw material 500-800 grams of tilapia rose 1.75% month-on-month to 11.40 yuan/kg. In Guangxi, the raw material price of 500-800 grams of tilapia in the region has stabilized at 11 yuan/kg, close to historical levels.

”At the beginning of the year, tilapia industry insiders widely expected the second quarter to be a turning point, with prices likely to fall as production rises. But an industry source said: "We haven't seen signs of a price drop yet. Maoming is one of the largest tilapia farming cities in China, accounting for one-seventh of China's production, and the current price (above 500g) is 12 yuan/kg, which is an all-time high.

Although the stock in Guangdong has increased, the processing plant still faces a shortage of raw materials in the short term. The industries don't expect a big harvest until the end of June.

With raw material prices at record highs, international buyers are in a tough spot, especially those in the United States, who are also saddled with a 25 % tariff that pushes their fillet costs above $3.0 / lb.

Another challenge for Chinese exporters is rising freight rates. The cost of shipping containers from China to Europe is up more than 20 %, and the cost of shipping containers to the United States is up more than 10 %.

"I don't think the price of the raw material is likely to rise further, because the increase in the complement is needed to absorb the entire supply chain," the source said. "so 12.0 yuan per kilogram will be a peak, no matter how it will rise."