With tariffs significantly reduced, China 's tilapia is expected to re-enter the US market

The high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States in Geneva have made substantial progress. From May 14, 2025, the two sides will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter-tariffs, and reduce the total tariff rate by 115%, but retain the remaining 10% of the remaining tariffs.

Taking tilapia as an example, the US tariff will be reduced from a maximum of 170% to 55% (including 301 investigation tariffs, fentany tariffs and 10% remaining tariffs). Although the tax amount is still relatively high, if both buyers and sellers can give up some profits, import trade can still continue.

At the Barcelona exhibition that ended last week, one Guangdong exporter said that the company exported 800 containers of tilapia fillets last year, 90% of which were sold to the United States, and the US business has been completely shut down under the 170% tariff. He also said that if the tariff is between 50-60%, it will be "controllable". Although it will still be difficult, it is at least much better than not having any orders at the moment.

Another Guangdong company said that the 55% tariff is equivalent to returning to April 5, when fish prices were relatively high and processing plants were still collecting fish, and the price collapse time was April 9.

The head of a Hainan tilapia processing plant said: "With the reduction in tariffs, some American customers may start to take action. Tilapia prices are also expected to rise."

The head of another Hainan company is relatively cautious. He said: "Now with the 301 clause, there is still 55%, and China's tilapia exports to the United States will continue to decline in the future."

In addition, he also pointed out that the 55% tariff still has no chance for Tilapia GS.

Another challenge at the Barcelona show is that when global buyers know that China is about to lose the US market and choose to look for opportunities in other markets, the prices of Chinese products are pushed down without limit. This situation is not only happening in the tilapia industry, but also in China's northern whitefish processing industry.

Last year, China exported 128,000 tons of tilapia products to the United States, worth $426 million. The United States is China's largest export market.

In the first quarter of this year, the United States imported 27,076 tons of tilapia products from China, a significant increase of 38% over the same period last year (19,574 tons). Many American importers have already purchased stocks in advance before the escalation of the trade war.

Reference : UCN