U.S. tilapia market faces supply-demand dilemma and tariff issues

The U.S. tilapia market is experiencing unprecedented supply and demand challenges. In 2024, retail sales declined due to production issues, while reduced consumer demand for seafood also exacerbated the dilemma. In addition, trade tariffs that may be imposed by the Trump administration add further uncertainty to the situation.

Imports fall, retail sales weaken

Imports of fresh tilapia fillets from South American suppliers fell 15% in 2024, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). China is the main supplier of tilapia to the United States, accounting for about 87% of the market. However, since 2020, the number of frozen tilapia fillets imported from China has dropped by about 20%, with imports of 82,520 metric tons in 2024, well below the 103,000 metric tons in 2020.

In the retail market, tilapia sales have also seen a significant decline. According to data from 210 Analytics, a Texas-based market research company, sales of fresh tilapia in the U.S. retail market in 2024 will be US$254 million, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; sales volume also decreased by 7.6%. Sales of frozen tilapia were US$542 million, down 2.3% year-on-year, while sales volume also decreased by 3.4%.

Production disrupted, supply tight

Industry experts have expressed concerns about the growth prospects of major supplier countries such as Colombia, Honduras and Mexico in 2025. Francisco Murillo, tilapia market expert from Ghana Tropo Farms, noted that these countries are still trying to recover from disease outbreaks in recent years, especially the challenge of strep throat. Although Brazil experienced difficult production difficulties in 2023, it successfully responded to this challenge in 2024 and adjusted its supply chain to redirect more supply to the US market.

Brazil's imports of fresh tilapia fillets surged 118% in 2024, while supplies from other American countries fell sharply. However, the side effects of high prices cannot be ignored. "These extremely high prices may cause some damage to the tilapia industry as a whole, as consumers may switch to other protein sources," Murillo said.

Tariff risks add to market uncertainty

In addition to production woes, tariff issues also make the outlook for the U.S. tilapia market more unpredictable. Matthew Fass, president of Maritime Products International, said the outlook for tilapia and other seafood products in 2025 has become murkier due to uncertainty over tariffs. He hopes that food will be exempted from the tariff war.

In January 2024, Colombia avoided a trade war with the United States by accepting deported immigrants. If the tariff war escalates, Colombia's tilapia exports may lose more than $70 million, affecting its supply to the U.S. market.

Sustainable consumption position

Despite declining imports, production woes, and geopolitical headwinds, tilapia remains the fourth most consumed seafood category in the United States. This fact offers hope for a recovery in the tilapia market, despite varying degrees of decline in sales over the past few years. Whether tilapia can overcome the current challenges and resume growth in the coming years remains to be watched.

Reference: FOODSPATH