Tilapia raw material price up 30%! What's the trend for the tilapia export?

Tilapia raw materials are still in short supply in the near future, and this supply-demand relationship is directly reflected in the price. It is reported that the raw material price of tilapia in the same period of 2023 is about 4.3 yuan/500g, which has risen to 5.6-5.8 yuan/500g, an increase of 30%.

There are about 20%-30% tilapia currently stored in the ponds in Hainan production area; At present, the raw materials of the storage pond in Guangdong production area are mainly 100-250g small size fish, accounting for about 60%, about 30% of the above 500g size fish, and about 10% of the 300-500g raw materials supplied to processing plants.

Affected by the continuous downturn in 2021 and 2022, tilapia farmers have abandoned and transferred to farm other fish, so from the second half of 2023, tilapia has been in a continuous shortage of raw materials.

From the perspective of breeding situation, according to the Aquatic Frontier report, the amount of tilapia breeding in 2024 increased by 50% compared with the same period in 2023, and basically restored to the same period in 2022.

Therefore, considering the two factors of the current status of small size fish storage and the recovery of breeding volume, the industry generally recognizes that the shortage of tilapia raw materials will be alleviated in May and June.

What is the current situation of tilapia export and domestic sales?

On the export side, China supplies about 50-60% of tilapia in the United States, the main export market.

The US market currently has order demand, but due to the current high price of tilapia, the ex-factory price is even higher than the transfer price in the US market, and is higher than the similar market positioning of basa fish and cod, so there is demand in the US market, but buyers are rarely willing to place orders.

Foreign customers also predict that raw material prices will fall in May and June. Placing orders at this stage, the price may fall after the arrival of the goods in May and June, so many customers would rather be out of stock or purchase a small amount, rather than place an order at the current high price.

From the perspective of other tilapia producing areas, Brazil's exports to the US market do not involve tariffs, the price of Chinese tilapia exports, combined with tariffs and freight costs, is higher than the price of Brazilian production areas, so some tilapia orders in the US market have been transferred from China to Brazil.

In terms of the domestic market, the price of basa fish and channel catfish are relatively low, which also affects the circulation and consumption of tilapia in the domestic market to a certain extent, especially the replacement of other raw materials in the field of fillet.