China's Tilapia prices have risen,can basa be alternative?

Tilapia is one of the most popular white meat fish in many markets, including China and the United States. However, in the first quarter of 2024, tilapia prices increased due to supply shortages, which provided an opportunity for Vietnamese basa fish to be exported to the United States.

According to the ITC, more than $438 million of tilapia was consumed in the market in 2023. Among them, the top five markets for tilapia consumption are the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and France, with imports exceeding $300 million, $33 million, $11 million and $10 million and $9.4 million, respectively.

As of the end of February 2024, the United States remains the world's largest importer of tilapia, with imports of more than $55 million, down 3% year-on-year, and China is the world's largest supplier of tilapia.

In the first quarter of 2024, the supply of tilapia in China was quite tight. The industry is recovering after farmers suspended operations last year because of low prices. Prices will continue to rise through May 2024. Meanwhile, China is the largest supplier of tilapia to the United States. Many forecasts suggest that Chinese tilapia supplies will recover in the second quarter of this year. However, the supplies are still insufficient, leading to high prices.

The farm price of 500g or more tilapia in Guangdong province is about 11.40 yuan/kg ($1.61 / kg), and 11.20 yuan/kg in Hainan province.The price is much higher than the 8.5 yuan/kg level in the same period last year.

China is currently facing a shortage of raw materials as pond stocks in southern China continue to decline.Since the fish released at the end of last year have reached harvest specifications, they are expected to be released to the market in June 2024.

However, farmers remain cautious about investing in new tilapia stocks.

In the first quarter of 2024, the United States imported 19,600 tons of frozen tilapia fillets from China valued at $73.6 million, down 13 percent in volume and 8 percent in value compared to the first quarter of 2023

In March 2024, the United States imported 1784 tons of fresh tilapia, a 200% reduction from the same period last year. This is the lowest level of U.S. imports in the past 12 years, mainly due to the lack of goods in major suppliers such as Honduras, Mexico and costa rica.

In the first quarter of 2024, U.S. consumption of fresh tilapia fillets will also decrease by 20% compared to the first quarter of 2023.China and the United States are two important markets for Vietnamese basa fish. When the two markets are in short supply, basa may be a potential alternative.