Golden pompano is one of the main species cultivated in China's deep sea. It is known as the "golden fish" of seawater. It is rich in nutrients, has delicate meat, and is diversified in the form of developed products, so it is deeply loved by the market.
Recently, golden pompano is in the spring fish market stage, and the number of fish caught has increased recently. However, from a market perspective, the fish market is booming in both supply and sales, and fish prices remain high and stable.
This leads to thinking: Why do gold pompano prices remain high this year? As fish are released one after another and fish prices fluctuate downwards, will gold pompano companies sell at lower prices to maintain the return of funds, or will they maintain high prices to ensure profits in all links of the industry chain?
In terms of raw material prices, the recent price of golden pompano for 400-500g size is about 15 yuan/500g , the raw material price for 500g size is about 16.5-17 yuan/500g, and the raw material price for 600 g size is 17.5-18 yuan/500g. Compared with the same period in previous years, the overall raw material prices are currently at a relatively high level.
It is understood that there is currently a relative shortage of gold pompano in large sizes above 600g on the market, so the price of large sizes is relatively higher, and there is even a phenomenon of "no fish for the price" for sizes above 800g.
The supply of large-sized golden pompano is tight. On the one hand, this year's frying time is generally later than in previous years: in the past, fish production began from June to August, but this year's fishing time has been extended to September. Therefore, compared with September in previous years, the current fish production is relatively small size, mainly reflected in the lack of raw materials for sizes above 1.2 kilograms. This has resulted in a relative shortage of large-size raw materials. Compared with last month, the ex-factory price of large-size fish has increased by about 300-400 yuan/ton.
On the other hand, the main demand for golden pompano exported to overseas markets is 500g or more. Recently, as foreign markets have gradually stocked up, foreign orders have increased steadily. Therefore, some large-sized golden pompano on the market is exported abroad, further intensifying the domestic market. Large-sized fish are in short supply.
However, why can the market price of 300/400g and 400/500g golden pompano remain high when the supply is relatively sufficient?
Many heads of golden pompano companies said that even if fish are gradually released in the market outlook, they are still optimistic that the price of golden pompano will remain stable at a high level this year, and the decline may be at most 1-2 yuan/500g. What is the reason and basis for this judgment?
First of all, the supply of golden pompano this year has basically remained stable.
Yang Huajian, general manager of Yangjiang Haina Aquatic, said that the production of golden pompano this year is expected to be basically the same as last year. “The overall number of golden pompano fry has increased this year, but due to the impact of two natural disasters, typhoons and red tides this year, the golden pompano production has declined. The production loss is about 20%, so overall, it is basically the same as the production in 2022."
In addition, some industry insiders said that the threshold for golden pompano farming is relatively high, requiring investment in large-scale facilities such as deep-sea cages, and feed costs account for about 80% of the cost of golden pomfret farming. Under such realistic circumstances, the golden pompano industry used to be more relying on large-scale feed mills for "credit sales and payment collection" to support the operation of the breeding model. However, this year many feed mills have reduced their investment in credit sales. In the absence of support from feed mills, there is not much room for incremental growth in golden pompano aquaculture production.
Under this change, compared with previous years, the investment in golden pompano cages has decreased this year, so the overall breeding density has increased, which has reduced the number of large-sized fish. Farmers rely more on small-sized fish to make money, rather than keeping big fish to make money. Therefore, the price of large-sized fish is expected to remain high this year; for small-sized fish, the price of raw materials is expected to remain strong in the future, and it is difficult to sell at a loss again.
The market demand for golden pompano has also been rising steadily in recent years.
The increase in market demand is first of all because relevant departments and enterprises have continued to promote golden pompano in recent years, which has made the consumer market recognize this "golden fish". Against the background of the continuous expansion of the consumer market, many industry players have stated that the market supply of golden pompano has remained stable in the past two years, and it is basically difficult to see a significant reduction in downstream orders.
For the export market, orders for this year are usually booked in the previous year, so the foreign consumption market of golden pompano is relatively stable; from the perspective of domestic demand, golden pompano has developed a variety of styles and can be consumed in many scenarios. And in the using scenario of golden pompano, no fish can play the same substitute role, so the domestic market has been relatively stable in recent years.
Some suppliers have recently experienced a slowdown in gold pompano shipments because there has been no obvious fluctuation in downstream market orders. The main reason why they feel the shipment speed is slowing down is that new fish have been continuously launched recently, and the market Only when supply increases will a decrease in shipments be felt, but in terms of downstream demand and the overall market order volume, there is no significant decline.
Against the background of stable production for two consecutive years and an increase in consumption due to marketing promotion, some industry insiders said that the overall gold pompano market will be in short supply this year. The price of golden pompano remains relatively high, which also provides sufficient profit support for all links in the industry chain. This is also the reason and confidence that industry players are generally optimistic that prices will remain strong this year.